西亚试剂：A slow birth-rate increase

发布时间：2025-06-23

But the policy change alone will not make much difference to birth rates, demographers think. “The UN has already been projecting a small and slow increase in China’s fertility rates over the coming decades, and this news makes this even more likely to happen. The increase is not likely to be large, though,” says Adrian Raftery, a population statistician at the University of Washington in Seattle.

Chinese women currently have an average of 1.55 children over their lifetime — a fertility rate that is higher than those of nations such as Germany (1.39) and Japan (1.4), according to the latest UN estimates. Current UN projections have China’s birth rate increasing to 1.75 by mid-century.

"There are just too many constraints in terms of housing and education for most Chinese couples to have more than two children," says Gerland. "In Taiwan, where no one-child policy has ever existed, relatively few couples opt to even have a second child."

UN experts estimate that the world population, currently about 7 billion, is continuing to grow but at a slowing pace: it may reach 12 billion by 2100. But according to statistically refined projections, population growth in the twenty-first century will be limited to Africa, where fertility rates are still two to three times higher than on other continents.

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